IBM Business Analytics Forum 2012 is the premier conference for the IBM Business Analytics community in Asia Pacific.
Join us in Melbourne to experience the most comprehensive learning opportunity for IBM Cognos, SPSS, Open Pages and Clarity software users.
The details are:
March 13, 2012 at 8:00 AM - March 15, 2012 at 5:00 PM
Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre, South Wharf
This event requires registration: http://www.ibm.com/au/forum2012
I will be presenting the following topics at this forum:
Analytical approaches to fraud detection with IBM SPSS
Anywhere some sort of financial transactions is involved presents a potential for misuse and the ubiquitous spectre of fraud such as online auctions, insurance claims, underwriting entities, insider electronic crimes, and so on. This session discusses various analytical approaches to fraud detection through the use of IBM SPSS.
Session type: Technical Overview
Level: Intermediate
Manage risk pro-actively with IBM SPSS Decision Management
The current global economic environment is unprecedented with bailouts, bankruptcies, government oversight and new regulations. In the past three years, the majority of enterprises experienced material risk events and many were not ready. IBM can help organisations manage their bottom line through risk and fraud analytics. Risk and fraud analytics enables organizations to break down risk silos and better understand the underlying rules and have the flexibility to test own rules that are unique to their organization. By more control over the process, the enterprises can anticipate and mitigate for potential risk – both internal and external. At the same time, by using modelling to identify fraud patterns, and putting that modelling into use in real-time, organisations can reduce the waste and cut the costs from fraud and abuse. This session explains how IBM SPSS Decision Management delivers an approach for helping address transactional fraud detection and individual risk assessment.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Monday, February 22, 2010
The future of public debt: prospects and implications
My reading today is about the future of public debt: prospects and implications.
This paper was prepared for the Reserve Bank of India's International Research Conference "Challenges to Central Banking in the context of Financial Crisis", Mumbai, India, 12-13 February 2010
http://www.bis.org/publ/othp09.pdf
This paper was prepared for the Reserve Bank of India's International Research Conference "Challenges to Central Banking in the context of Financial Crisis", Mumbai, India, 12-13 February 2010
http://www.bis.org/publ/othp09.pdf
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Greek drama: Default or not
I can see the rational for letting Greece default to face up the consequences of their fiscal irresponsibity – One would argue the same for letting Lehman Brothers collapse, even though it’s in a different context.
So I can’t see the default happen because it is not in anyone’s interest except those hedgefund speculators, especially when the financial world is too fragile after the GFC to stomach any more catastrophic event.
I don’t underestimate the role of the financial speculators in the Greek drama. If Greece succumbs to the eventual default, others in PIGS will be next in line for the speculators’ attack, possibly Italy since its problem is worse than the others with much higher debt and weaker growth.
The creditors of the Greek public debt happen to be the institutions, the pension funds and the like, of the bigger European countries, namely Germany and France. Default or not becomes a choice between whether the cost of the Greek drama is born by the shareholders of these institutions or wider European tax payers. Similarly to the moral hazard in the bailout for GFC, the Euro will likely bailout to spread the cost of the Greek problem.
One would not discount the bailout from the IMF but it’s too humiliating for the European for that to happen.
So I can’t see the default happen because it is not in anyone’s interest except those hedgefund speculators, especially when the financial world is too fragile after the GFC to stomach any more catastrophic event.
I don’t underestimate the role of the financial speculators in the Greek drama. If Greece succumbs to the eventual default, others in PIGS will be next in line for the speculators’ attack, possibly Italy since its problem is worse than the others with much higher debt and weaker growth.
The creditors of the Greek public debt happen to be the institutions, the pension funds and the like, of the bigger European countries, namely Germany and France. Default or not becomes a choice between whether the cost of the Greek drama is born by the shareholders of these institutions or wider European tax payers. Similarly to the moral hazard in the bailout for GFC, the Euro will likely bailout to spread the cost of the Greek problem.
One would not discount the bailout from the IMF but it’s too humiliating for the European for that to happen.
Monday, January 26, 2009
My First Blog - Investment "risk"
I use this blog as a collection of my short notes about life, investment, business and travels. This includes extracts from my reading which I think is useful to point out.
Warren Buffet’s view on the investment risk:
“The risk that an investor must assess is whether his after-tax return will give him at least as much purchasing power as he had to begin with, plus a modest rate of interest on that initial stake. The primary factors bearing this evaluation are:
1. The certainty with which the long-term economic characteristics of the business can be evaluated;
2. The certainty with which management can be evaluated, both as to its ability to realise the full potential of the business and to wisely employ its cash flows;
3. The certainty with which management can be counted on to channel the reward from the business to the shareholders rather than to itself;
4. The purchase price of the business
5. The levels of taxation and inflation that will be experienced and that will determine his purchasing-power return.”
Equating the investment risk with beta (i.e. relative volatility) of a stock or portfolio of stocks is absurd.
Warren Buffet’s view on the investment risk:
“The risk that an investor must assess is whether his after-tax return will give him at least as much purchasing power as he had to begin with, plus a modest rate of interest on that initial stake. The primary factors bearing this evaluation are:
1. The certainty with which the long-term economic characteristics of the business can be evaluated;
2. The certainty with which management can be evaluated, both as to its ability to realise the full potential of the business and to wisely employ its cash flows;
3. The certainty with which management can be counted on to channel the reward from the business to the shareholders rather than to itself;
4. The purchase price of the business
5. The levels of taxation and inflation that will be experienced and that will determine his purchasing-power return.”
Equating the investment risk with beta (i.e. relative volatility) of a stock or portfolio of stocks is absurd.
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